North Carolina Republicans just took the lead in the MAIL-IN + early voting.
- 🔴 Republicans: 686,624
- 🔵 Democrats: 683,301
- 🟡 Others: 638,268
Data: @MichaelPruser
🦅 Pennsylvania – 2024 General Election – Day 13
📥 1,208,063 votes cast
- 🔵 DEM: 726,619 – 65.6% returned
- 🔴 GOP: 360,527 – 60.3% returned
- 🟡 IND: 120,917 – 50.2% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 60.2% / 🔴 29.8% / 🟡 10%
- 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+366,092
- 📈 Return Edge: 🔵+5.3
🦅 Pennsylvania – 2024 General Election – Day 12
📥 1,123,509 votes cast
- 🔵 DEM: 684,724 – 62.7% returned
- 🔴 GOP: 328,074 – 56.7% returned
- 🟡 IND: 110,711 – 47.3% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 60.9% / 🔴 29.2% / 🟡 9.9%
- 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+356,650
- 📈 Return Edge: 🔵+6.0
North Carolina 🌄
Mail: 120,384 ballots
Early In-Person: 1,887,784 ballots
Ballots by party registration:
- 🔴 Republican 34.2% | 686,629 votes (+108,101)
- 🔵 Democratic 34.0% | 683,265 votes (+94,181)
- ⚪️ Other 31.8% | 638,274 votes (+99,787)
Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll
- Michigan – 🔵 Harris +3.1
- Pennsylvania – 🔵 Harris +1.7
- Nevada – 🔵 Harris +0.5
- Arizona – 🔵 Harris +0.4
- Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump +0.3
- North Carolina – 🔴 Trump +1.2
- Georgia – 🔴 Trump +1.5
#107 (1.8/3.0) | 10/16-20 | likely voters
National TIPP Insights Tracking Poll:
- Harris 49% (+2)
- Trump 47%
1,294 LV, 10/20-22
Quinnipiac polls
Oct 17-21, LVs, showing H2H results
MICHIGAN
- Previous (Oct 3-7): 🔴 Trump +4 (47-51)
- 538 Avg: 🔵 Harris+0.1
WISCONSIN
- Previous (Oct 3-7): 🔴 Trump +2 (47-49)
- 538 Avg: 🔵 Harris+0.4
NEW FORBES/HARRISX POLL:
(Same poll was Harris+4 in September)
🇺🇸#USA, presidential election poll:
Among 18-34 year-olds:
- ⏫Harris (D): 60 % (+14)
- ⏫Trump (R): 40 % (+6)
In the last poll in July, RFK Jr. was standing at 21 %.
CNBC/Generation Lab, October 2024
#NEW BATTLEGROUND polls
- 🔴 GA: Trump+1.5
- 🔴 NC: Trump+1.2
- 🔴 WI: Trump+0.3
- 🔵 AZ: Harris+0.4
- 🔵 NV: Harris+0.5
- 🔵 PA: Harris+1.7
- 🔵 MI: Harris+3.1
Bloomberg/Morning Consult | 10/16-20 | N=4,979LV
Popular Vote Winner 2024
Kamala Harris is still the favorite to win the popular vote.
- 🟦 Harris • 59.6% chance
- 🟥 Trump • 40.3% chance
Quinnipiac polls, Oct 17-21
President
- Michigan 🔵 Harris +4
- Wisconsin 🟡 Tied
Senate
- Michigan 🔵 Slotkin +8
- Wisconsin 🔵 Baldwin +1
Pennsylvania 🚂
Mail and absentee voting update
Total: 1,284,742 (+76,679 since Oct 24)
- 🔵 Democratic 59.4% | 763,072 votes (+36,453)
- 🔴 Republican 30.4% | 390,878 votes (+30,351)
- ⚪️ Other 10.2% | 130,792 votes (+9,875)
Presidential Polling Among Likely 18-29 Year Olds:
- 🟦 Harris (D): 60%
- 🟥 Trump (R): 32%
Kamala Harris is still the favorite to win the popular vote.
Swing States poll by @RedfieldWilton
- Wisconsin – 🔵 Harris 49-47%
- Pennsylvania – 🔵 Harris 48-47%
- Michigan – 🟡 Tie 47-47%
- Arizona – 🔴 Trump 48-46%
- North Carolina – 🔴 Trump 48-47%
- Georgia – 🔴 Trump 48-47%
- Nevada – 🔴 Trump 47-46%
#110 (1.8/3.0) | N=7,362 | 10/20-22
