The Round of 16 is all but complete. Fourteen of the sixteen ties are settled, with the final two played today. The defining story of the round is a clean sweep of eliminations for the three host nations — and the exit of five-time champions Brazil at the hands of Norway.
The story of the round: hosts out, Brazil stunned
All three co-hosts have been knocked out in the Round of 16. Morocco dismantled Canada 3–0, England edged Mexico 3–2, and Belgium overwhelmed the United States 4–1 — an especially heavy exit for the Americans. The biggest shock of the tournament came in Norway’s 2–1 defeat of Brazil, ending the five-time champions’ campaign before the quarter-finals. Argentina, meanwhile, survived a genuine scare from tournament debutants Cape Verde, edging through 3–2.
Round of 16 — completed results
| Date | Match (winner listed first) | Score | Note |
| Jul 2 | Switzerland vs Algeria | 2–0 | |
| Jul 3 | Argentina vs Cape Verde | 3–2 | Debutants pushed Argentina |
| Jul 3 | Colombia vs Ghana | 1–0 | |
| Jul 4 | Morocco vs Canada | 3–0 | Co-host out |
| Jul 4 | France vs Paraguay | 1–0 | |
| Jul 5 | Norway vs Brazil | 2–1 | Major upset |
| Jul 5 | England vs Mexico | 3–2 | Co-host out |
| Jul 6 | Spain vs Portugal | 1–0 | Iberian derby |
| Jul 6 | Belgium vs USA | 4–1 | Co-host out |
Winner listed first. Earlier in the knockout sequence, Australia and Egypt drew 1–1, with Egypt advancing to face Argentina.
Still to play today — Tuesday, July 7
| Kick-off (Jul 7) | Fixture | Model win probability |
| 11:00 AM CDT | Argentina vs Egypt | Argentina ~72% |
| 3:00 PM CDT | Switzerland vs Colombia | Colombia ~42% / draw ~31% |
Win probabilities are model estimates as published pre-match and will change once results are in.
Quarter-final line-up
With fourteen ties settled, three quarter-finals are locked and the fourth awaits today’s two winners.
| Date | Quarter-final | Early lean |
| Thu, Jul 9 | France vs Morocco | France ~60% |
| Fri, Jul 10 | Spain vs Belgium | Spain ~59% |
| Sat, Jul 11 | Norway vs England | England ~51% |
| Sat, Jul 11 | Winner ARG/EGY vs Winner SUI/COL | To be determined |
Compiled for The Atlantic Digest from official FIFA World Cup match data as of Tuesday, July 7, 2026. Fixtures, kick-off times and probabilities are subject to change.
