The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russian forces are finding it increasingly difficult to maintain their multi-pronged offensive operations due to a severe depletion of manpower and military hardware. While the Kremlin has made high-profile claims of progress on the frontline from Kupyansk to Hulyaipole, these assertions are reportedly not backed by the force concentrations required to achieve operationally significant breakthroughs. The current Russian strategy appears to rely on exaggerated narratives of tactical advances, even as units on the ground are stretched thin across a wide and active frontline. Experts note that Russia would need to substantially increase its personnel and material resources in specific sectors to change the tactical stalemate into a strategic victory, a task that remains a significant challenge for the Russian military command.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets has warned that any attempt by Russia to launch a concentrated offensive toward the so-called Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast—which includes critical strongholds like Slovyansk and Kramatorsk—would necessitate a massive redeployment of troops from other sectors. Mashovets assesses that the current Russian grouping of forces is already struggling with organizational effectiveness and a deteriorating officer corps, making a simultaneous push in multiple directions unsustainable in the long term. This strain on the Russian military is compounded by the high costs of infiltration tactics and small-group assaults that have resulted in heavy losses without corresponding strategic gains.
