South Africa faces a potential petrol price increase of up to R8 per litre in April, driven by the sharp rise in global oil prices following the US-Israel war on Iran and a simultaneous decline in the rand against the dollar. Petrol 93 currently sells at R20.19 per litre and petrol 95 at R20.30, but analysts project these could reach R28.19 and R28.30 respectively if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and market conditions do not improve. The rand cost of Brent crude oil surged from approximately R954 per barrel to R1,328 in the space of one week — a 40% jump — as the war disrupted the global energy supply chain and investor sentiment shifted against emerging market currencies. Diesel prices face an even steeper outlook, with diesel 0.05% currently at R18.53 per litre potentially rising to R26.53.
Biznews market analyst Alec Hogg attributed the projected increase directly to the combined shock of higher crude costs and rand weakness, noting that South Africa’s petrol and diesel prices are anchored to the rand cost of oil and therefore highly exposed to both variables simultaneously. Stanlib chief economist Kevin Lings quantified the under-recovery in the Central Energy Fund’s pricing data at 185 cents per litre for petrol and 354 cents per litre for diesel as of early March, warning that this would add at least 0.5 percentage points to South Africa’s consumer price index in April. He cautioned that the inflation impact would reduce scope for interest rate cuts by the South African Reserve Bank in the near term, with rate expectations shifting toward the possibility of a hike if the conflict proves prolonged. Portfolio manager Paisley Nardini warned that oil could easily surpass $100 per barrel if Middle East tensions continue to escalate.
Compounding the pressure from global oil markets are domestic tax increases already scheduled to take effect on 1 April 2026 as part of Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s 2026 Budget. The General Fuel Levy will increase by 90 cents per litre for petrol and 8 cents for diesel, while the Road Accident Fund levy rises by 7 cents per litre across both fuel grades. In total, fuel taxes will increase by 21 cents per litre from 1 April, meaning motorists face a structural price floor that will not reverse even if oil prices recover. The April adjustment date falls on 1 April — the first Wednesday of the month — the standard timing for fuel price reviews by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources.
National Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse has sought to downplay the impact, noting that rising gold prices — a simultaneous effect of global risk aversion — provide a partial offset to the oil shock for South Africa’s fiscus. However, economists say this provides no direct relief for consumers at the pump. Analysts broadly expect the SARB to treat the price shock as temporary if the conflict resolves within a few weeks, but note that the White House has projected four to five weeks of military operations in Iran, with capability for longer engagement, meaning the inflation risk remains open-ended for now. A longer conflict could push South Africa’s inflation outlook materially higher and delay the monetary easing cycle that was expected to benefit borrowers and the broader economy through the first half of 2026.
