Crude oil prices crossed $90 per barrel on Friday, with US West Texas Intermediate settling at $90.90 — up 36% in a week and its highest level since late 2022 — as the Iran war continued to devastate energy supplies flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed 27% over the same period to $92.69, recording the biggest weekly gain on record for US crude since the WTI contract was first traded in 1983. The price of US crude has risen by nearly 60% since the start of the year. The surge reflects the near-total shutdown of a waterway through which approximately 20% of global oil supply and a significant share of global LNG normally flows daily, combined with direct damage to key energy infrastructure including Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery and Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex.
Global gasoline prices have risen sharply in step with crude benchmarks. In the United States, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline jumped 14% in a week to $3.41 on Saturday, from under $3 before the conflict, according to data from the AAA motor club — the largest comparable weekly increase since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in March 2022. European natural gas futures surged approximately 30% following the strikes on Qatar’s LNG facilities, given the country’s importance to global LNG supply. In Nigeria, Dangote Refinery raised its ex-depot price to $995 per tonne, and pump prices across Lagos have climbed toward ₦1,080 per litre, with Ibadan recording ₦1,200, as the conflict’s shock radiates through import-dependent fuel markets across the developing world.
Analysts from JPMorgan Chase said in a note on Friday that the market had shifted from pricing geopolitical risk to grappling with operational disruption, as refinery shutdowns and export constraints compound the shipping paralysis. Roughly nine million barrels per day are currently off the global market due to a combination of facility damage and precautionary production cuts, according to industry analysis, creating what one expert described as a situation of extreme deficit. Goldman Sachs has projected that prices could blow past $100 per barrel if there is an extended disruption to the strait, and Qatar’s energy minister has warned $150 is reachable within weeks if the blockage persists.
President Donald Trump told Reuters this week that he was unconcerned about the price spike, predicting a rapid fall once the conflict ends. However, the surge is generating significant domestic political pressure, with Democrats moving to make affordability a central message ahead of November’s US midterm elections. A CNN poll released on 2 March found that nearly 60% of Americans disapproved of the military action in Iran, while a Fox News poll showed 61% disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy. Outside the United States, governments across Asia, Africa and Europe are weighing strategic petroleum reserve releases and emergency import rerouting to limit the damage to consumers and manufacturers from what is increasingly described by energy analysts as a historic shock to the global energy supply system.
