The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) could rise to approximately ₦950 per litre by 2026. In its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook released this week, the apex bank based this forecast on an assumed average crude oil price of $55 per barrel and an exchange rate of ₦1,400/$. Despite the projected price increase from current levels, the CBN remains optimistic that increased private-sector investment in domestic refining—most notably from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery—will eventually stabilize energy costs and prevent the extreme volatility seen in previous years.
Currently, the Dangote Refinery maintains an ex-gantry price of ₦699 per litre, while retail prices at authorized distributors like MRS Oil stand at ₦739 per litre. However, Aliko Dangote recently warned that without sustained local production, prices could skyrocket to ₦1,400 per litre if the nation returns to a heavy reliance on imported fuel. The CBN’s outlook suggests that a competitive midstream sector, bolstered by a domestic production target of 1.5 million barrels per day, will be the primary driver in keeping prices below the feared ₦1,000 threshold while supporting broader economic growth.
The report also offers a positive forecast for the nation’s “inflation curve,” predicting that headline inflation will decelerate to 12.94% in 2026, down from an estimated 21.26% in 2025. This moderation is expected to be fueled by lower food prices and easing energy costs as more local refineries come online. The bank highlighted that the launch of the Production Monitoring Command Centre and improved security around oil assets will be critical to achieving the projected current account surplus of $18.81 billion by the end of next year.
